MIAMI — On Sunday, President Trump declared during an exclusive sit-down on a weekend TV news program, “Full Measure with Sharyl Attkisson,” that Venezuela is “very happy” and “well managed,” pointing to surging oil production and major energy companies entering the country as evidence that the January capture of Nicolás Maduro has paid off.
“They were unhappy, now they’re happy,” Trump said. “The oil that is coming out is enormous, the largest in many years.”
What Is Happening On The Ground?
On January 3, U.S. special forces conducted Operation Absolute Resolve — a pre-dawn raid on Caracas that resulted in the capture of Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, both of whom were transported to New York to face narcoterrorism charges. Maduro and Flores pleaded not guilty in Manhattan federal court on January 5. The operation lasted approximately two and a half hours.
Trump immediately declared that the U.S. would “run” Venezuela during a transition period, though Secretary of State Marco Rubio walked that language back within 24 hours. Under the Venezuelan constitution, Maduro’s forced absence triggered the swearing-in of his vice president, Delcy Rodríguez, as interim president.
Rodríguez — a longtime Chavista loyalist — condemned the operation as an illegal kidnapping and then, within days, began signaling cooperation with Washington.
The Oil Picture — And Its Limits
President Trump is not wrong that oil production is rising. Venezuela’s output has climbed to more than one million barrels per day, supported by joint ventures with Chevron, Repsol, Eni, and Maurel & Prom under new flexible licensing arrangements.
Rodríguez signed a reformed hydrocarbons law in late January that reduced royalties from 33% to as low as 15% and opened the sector to greater foreign operational autonomy. A proposed mining law, partially approved in March, would extend concessions and open gold, diamond, and rare earth sectors to international investment.
Venezuela’s economy could expand by as much as 12% in 2026, according to analysis from Americas Quarterly — the strongest growth figure in years. Access to foreign currency has improved, exchange-rate volatility has decreased, and private-sector activity is showing early signs of recovery.
But economists and analysts are cautious about what this represents. The growth is driven almost entirely by oil and external factors, not structural reform.
Venezuela’s history has a consistent pattern: oil windfalls get absorbed through short-term spending rather than institution-building. The current recovery, as one Americas Quarterly analysis put it, is a rebound, not a transformation.
The U.S. oil blockade also remains in place. Trump has said the U.S. will sell some of the sanctioned oil on global markets, but it remains unclear how much of that revenue is flowing back to Venezuelans. If the blockade is not lifted, Venezuela could forfeit more than 70% of its potential oil production in 2026, according to the EU Institute for Security Studies.
Rodríguez Still Playing Both Sides
The most important figure in Venezuela right now is not one most Americans know by name. Delcy Rodríguez — Maduro’s former vice president, his foreign minister before that, and a central figure in his autocratic government for over a decade — now runs the country. She stunned the Chavista hardliners earlier this year after releasing hundreds of political prisoners, pushed through oil sector reforms, and positioned herself as a pragmatic partner for Washington.
She is also, according to analysts, doing the minimum necessary to keep the U.S. from applying more pressure — while preserving as much of the existing power structure as possible. Former U.S. ambassador to Venezuela James Story described her strategy as “do just enough to make it look as if they’re complying,” waiting to see whether U.S. midterm elections weaken Trump’s leverage.
The security apparatus that kept Maduro in power — the military, the colectivos, the intelligence services — remains largely intact.
Washington’s approach has been to work with Rodríguez rather than push for a democratic transition immediately after Maduro’s removal, opting for internal stability prior to full-throated democratic reforms.
Trump sidelined opposition leader María Corina Machado, the woman who won roughly 70% of the popular vote in 2024’s disputed election and who holds a 72% approval rating among Venezuelans in independent polling. Machado, who was awarded the Nobel Peace Prize for her years of opposition organizing, has been largely absent from the post-Maduro political framework that Washington is now building.
What About Elections?
The Venezuelan constitution requires a presidential election within six months of a president's forced absence. That window is now closed without an election having been held. No credible electoral timeline has been announced. Rubio briefed Congress on a three-step transition plan, but concrete movement toward free elections — with independent judicial and electoral institutions rebuilt from scratch — has not materialized.
Analysts also noted that any legitimate transition will require more time than the constitutional framework allows, and that Venezuelan civil society needs to be part of whatever process emerges.
What Miami’s Community Is Watching
For the Venezuelan community in Miami and across the United States, the gap between Trump’s “happy country” framing and the transition’s real trajectory is not a small difference. Most people who left Venezuela did not leave because of Maduro personally. They left because of what his government built: a collapsed economy, a broken public sector, a security apparatus that functioned as an instrument of repression, and widespread corruption.
Most of those structures still exist and the people who ran them are still there.
That does not mean the situation has not changed. Maduro is gone, and that matters. Oil revenues are returning, and that matters too — for ordinary Venezuelans whose livelihoods depend on whether the state can function. Political prisoners have been released. The fear that defined everyday life under Maduro has, by multiple accounts, diminished.
But for many in Miami and inside Venezuela, the transition in Caracas in incomplete, and the path to democratic governance is not yet met. But their hopes are not yet diminished.
Sociedad Media will continue to cover Venezuela’s transition as it develops. For questions, concerns, tips, or general inquiries, contact the outlet at info@sociedadmedia.com
