MIAMI — For the first time in eight years, Florida will elect a governor without an incumbent on the ballot. With Ron DeSantis is term-limited, the race is setting up the state’s first open gubernatorial race since 2018 — and with it, a genuinely crowded field, a primary just days away, and a set of issues that will land differently on Miami’s large Latino electorate than on the state as a whole.
The Basic Landscape: A Red State, With a Real Primary Fight
Florida’s political trajectory over the past decade has been unambiguous. Ron DeSantis won his first term in 2018 by less than half a point; four years later, he won reelection by 19.4 points, and Donald Trump carried the state by 13 points in 2024.
Republicans have won every Florida gubernatorial election since 1998, and currently hold the governorship and both chambers of the state legislature.
Analysts covering the race have rated it “Lean Republican” to “Safe Republican,” with most treating the Republican primary — not the general election — as the race’s real decision point.
That primary, along with primaries for other state offices, takes place August 18. The general election follows November 3.
Who’s Running
The Republican field narrowed considerably after Attorney General Ashley Moody, once considered the early frontrunner, was appointed to the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Marco Rubio’s move to Secretary of State.
U.S. Representative Byron Donalds has since consolidated a commanding lead, drawing on Trump’s full endorsement and a campaign war chest exceeding $80 million; multiple independent polls through the summer have shown him at 46% to 54% support among likely Republican primary voters, tens of points ahead of his nearest rivals — Lieutenant Governor Jay Collins, investor James Fishback, and former House Speaker Paul Renner.
Miami Mayor Francis Suárez and Lieutenant Governor-turned-candidate Jeanette Núñez, a Cuban-American with deep Miami-Dade ties, were floated earlier in the cycle but have not gained comparable traction in more recent polling.
On the Democratic side, the field remains considerably less settled. Former Republican-turned-Democrat David Jolly leads with roughly 21% support, followed by Orange County Mayor Jerry Demings at around 10% — with a majority of Democratic primary voters still undecided as of the most recent surveys.
Where the General Election Actually Looks Competitive
Despite Florida’s overall Republican lean, general-election polling has shown a narrower gap than the state’s broader partisan environment might suggest.
An Emerson College survey had Donalds leading Jolly 44% to 39% in a hypothetical matchup; a separate poll testing Jolly against Collins showed a statistical dead heat, 40% to 39%. Notably, that same Emerson poll found Hispanic voters statewide almost evenly split — 42% for Donalds, 41% for Jolly — a meaningfully closer margin than Donalds’ overall lead, and a data point worth watching specifically for what it suggests about Hispanic voting behavior in a state where Miami-Dade itself flipped Republican in the 2024 presidential election.
What’s Actually on the Table for Miami’s Latino Community
Several issues likely to define the race carry particular weight in South Florida specifically:
Property insurance and housing costs. Florida homeowners have seen insurance premiums rise more than 50% since 2020, a burden compounding directly with the broader cost-of-living pressures already reshaping Miami — insurance costs were a central driver behind the recent finding that Miami has, for the first time, overtaken New York City in overall cost of living. Whichever candidates take office will inherit a housing affordability crisis with no clear resolution in sight.
Immigration policy. Donalds has campaigned explicitly on fighting “illegal immigration” as part of an “America First” platform, aligning closely with the Trump administration’s enforcement posture. Given Miami-Dade’s large immigrant and mixed-status population — spanning Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian, Nicaraguan, and other communities — the eventual nominees’ specific positions on state-level immigration enforcement, including any expansion of 287(g)-style local-federal cooperation agreements already active across several Miami-Dade municipalities, are likely to matter more concretely to voters here than in much of the rest of the state.
Representation and turnout dynamics. Núñez’s underperformance relative to her Miami-Dade profile, alongside the closely split Hispanic vote in general-election polling, suggests Latino voters in South Florida are not moving as a single bloc — a dynamic worth watching as candidates court the community differently depending on national origin, generation, and specific policy priorities, rather than treating “the Hispanic vote” as monolithic.
Election Incoming
With the primary less than two weeks away, the most immediate question is whether Donalds’ commanding polling lead holds through August 18, or whether a late consolidation among his rivals — or a Casey DeSantis entry, which polling earlier this year showed running close to even with Donalds before her decision not to enter the race — reshapes the Republican side.
On the Democratic side, whether Jolly can convert his current lead into a clearer mandate, given how many primary voters remain undecided, remains an open question heading into the final stretch.
For Miami’s Latino community specifically, the results will likely shape not just who governs Florida for the next four years, but how directly state policy engages with the issues — insurance costs, immigration enforcement, and housing affordability — that most distinctly define life in South Florida.
Sociedad Media will continue to monitor the Florida gubernatorial race. For questions and collaborations, contact info@sociedadmedia.com
