When Sociedad Media last reported on Colombia’s presidential race, Abelardo De la Espriella held second place and the right was fighting itself for the slot that could produce a competitive runoff against front-runner Iván Cepeda. Thirteen days out from the May 31 first round, that fight has produced a result — and the race looks different because of it.
The most recent survey, conducted by the Genesis Crea Foundation between May 4 and 11 and published on Friday, places Cepeda at 35.1% of voting intentions. Paloma Valencia stands at 25.4%, while De la Espriella records 21.6%. For the first time in the campaign, Valencia has opened a meaningful gap over De la Espriella in a major poll — and the implications for the June 21 runoff are significant.
What Has Changed
The latest polls confirm a trend that had already been emerging: the consolidation of a three-candidate race led by Cepeda, with Valencia emerging as the fastest-rising candidate, nearly doubling her support from 10% in early polling.
The shift matters for a specific reason that the polling data makes clear. A weighted average of recent polls suggests that Cepeda could narrowly lose to Valencia but defeat De la Espriella in a runoff. In the Invamer poll published April 26 — the last authorized survey before Colombian electoral law’s pre-election polling restrictions kicked in — a hypothetical Cepeda-Valencia runoff produced a margin of 51.2% to 46.6% for Cepeda, compared to a more comfortable 54.6% to 42.6% in a hypothetical matchup against De la Espriella.
The right has spent months arguing internally about which candidate gives it the best chance of defeating Cepeda in a second round. The polling now consistently answers that question: Valencia.
Valencia outperforms De la Espriella in capturing second-choice preferences, positioning her as the more competitive challenger in a potential runoff. When respondents were asked who they would support if their first-choice candidate failed to advance, Cepeda led with 26.7%, followed closely by Valencia at 25.7%, with De la Espriella trailing at 19.8%.
Whether that means De la Espriella’s supporters consolidate behind Valencia before May 31 — or whether they hold their votes in the first round, hoping their candidate makes the runoff despite trailing — is the question the campaign’s final 13 days will answer.
Cepeda’s Ceiling
The other significant data point in the Genesis Crea poll is what it says about Cepeda’s trajectory. The figure keeps him clearly ahead of his rivals, but also confirms that he remains far from the 50% plus one required to avoid a second round.
Unlike earlier stages, Cepeda has not managed to widen his lead or capitalize on fluctuations among his opponents. This suggests that his electoral ceiling may be closer than expected, or that he is facing difficulties attracting new segments of the electorate beyond his consolidated base.
That ceiling is the central vulnerability of his campaign. Cepeda has run an unconventional race — focused on mounting rallies across the country, eschewing billboards and advertising, doing only two interviews, and participating in no debates. That posture has kept him dominant in the first round. Whether it is sufficient in a runoff, where turnout patterns and second-choice behavior become decisive, is the question his campaign has not yet had to answer.
Violence, Washington, and the Stakes of the Vote
The campaign’s final stretch is being shaped by two external forces that neither candidate fully controls.
The first is security. The April 25 FARC dissident bombing on the Pan-American Highway in Cauca — which killed 20 people — injected Colombia’s worsening security situation directly into the campaign at its most critical moment. Violence and corruption top voter concerns ahead of the first round. That environment theoretically favors the candidates with the hardest security platforms — De la Espriella, who has called for allowing U.S. troop interventions on Colombian soil, and Valencia, who has proposed a modernized Plan Colombia.
Cepeda, who backs the continuation of Petro’s total peace framework, is defending an approach to security that a significant share of voters has concluded is not working.
The second is Washington. Representative Mario Díaz-Balart, a Miami Republican and one of Congress’s most vocal voices on Latin American affairs, warned publicly this week of a “deterioration of democracy” in Colombia, citing documented threats against political leaders and candidates during the campaign period.
The warning, coming from a member of Congress with close ties to the Trump administration, signals the degree to which Washington is watching this vote — and the degree to which a Cepeda victory would complicate U.S.-Colombia relations that are already at their lowest point in decades.
U.S.-Colombian relations have been strained under the second Trump administration amid differences with President Petro over drug policy, U.S. foreign assistance cuts and tariffs, and Colombia’s decision to sign a cooperation plan with China on the Belt and Road Initiative.
Valencia and De la Espriella have vowed to join President Trump’s Americas Counter Cartel initiative.
Valencia has proposed a modernized Plan Colombia bilateral security initiative.
The Assassination That Haunts the Campaign
One dimension of this election that has received insufficient English-language coverage is the assassination of Senator Miguel Uribe Turbay of the Democratic Center — Paloma Valencia’s own party — during the campaign period. His killing is among the most significant acts of political violence in Colombia since the 2022 cycle and has cast a shadow over the final weeks of campaigning that polling cannot fully capture.
The Defensoría del Pueblo has documented more than 60 political leaders and community representatives killed during the campaign period. That figure appears to validate the criticisms by Rep. Díaz-Balart’s democratic deterioration warning — offered not merely not as a rhetorical flourish, but as a reference to documented, ongoing violence against political participants.
What the Next 13 Days Look Like
Colombia’s first round is May 31. A runoff — which every available poll considers inevitable — follows June 21. The new president takes office August 7.
In the time remaining, the campaign has three defining variables: whether Valencia consolidates the conservative vote and De la Espriella’s supporters shift toward her before the first round; whether the security crisis produces further escalation that moves undecided voters; and whether Cepeda’s decision to avoid debates and traditional media holds up as a strategy in the campaign’s final, highest-intensity stretch.
The greatest uncertainty is now concentrated in the battle for second place. The gap between Valencia and De la Espriella is relatively narrow and leaves open the possibility of changes during the next two weeks of campaigning. Every debate, public appearance, or political mistake could prove decisive in determining who advances to the runoff.
Colombia’s presidential race began with a clear front-runner and a fragmented opposition. It ends with the same front-runner — but with an opposition that has, finally, begun to sort itself out. Whether it has done so in time is what May 31 will answer.
Sociedad Media will continue to cover Colombia’s presidential election through the first round on May 31 and the expected runoff on June 21. Tips, sources, and feedback welcome at info@sociedadmedia.com
