LIMA — Peru has done it again.
With over 92% of votes counted from Sunday’s presidential runoff, the race between conservative Keiko Fujimori and leftist Roberto Sánchez remains too close to call on Monday morning — a margin measured in tens of thousands of votes in a country of 27 million registered voters, and a result that may take days or weeks to officially certify.
Peru’s electoral authority ONPE showed Fujimori leading with 8.731 million votes — 50.1% — while Sánchez had earned 8.674 million votes, or 49.8%. A preliminary exit poll by Ipsos on Sunday night showed a statistical tie, with Sánchez very slightly ahead.
By Monday morning, however, the count had shifted, with Sánchez leading at 50.3% to Fujimori’s 49.7% with over 90% of ballots processed — a stark contrast to earlier trends that had shown Fujimori leading by more than 52% when only 56% of votes had been counted.
The pattern is one Peruvians know all too well.
In 2021, Fujimori led in early urban counts before rural ballots — which overwhelmingly favored the left — eroded and then reversed her advantage. The same dynamic appears to be playing out again.
How the Count Moves
The arithmetic of Peru’s runoffs follows a consistent geographic logic. Lima and Peru’s coastal cities, which count faster, lean right — toward Fujimori. The rural highlands and Amazon regions, which report later, lean left — toward Sánchez, whose base mirrors that of his close ally, imprisoned former President Pedro Castillo.
Sánchez enjoys massive support in the rural parts of Peru, much like his close ally and disgraced former president Pedro Castillo. As the remaining votes — disproportionately from remote provinces and Peruvians abroad — continue to be tabulated, the final margin could shift in either direction.
The official escrutinio process, in which Peru’s National Elections Jury formally validates the count, is expected to take several additional days at minimum.
In 2021, the final certified result was not announced until weeks after election day.
What Each Candidate Has Said
Neither candidate claimed victory on Sunday night. Both campaigns have indicated they will wait for the official count — though the history of Peruvian runoffs suggests that patience may be tested as the margin narrows or shifts.
Fujimori has contested the results of every runoff she has participated in. In 2021, she alleged fraud after Castillo pulled ahead, filing complaints to annul hundreds of thousands of votes. No evidence of systematic fraud was found by international observers or Peru’s electoral authorities in that election. Whether her campaign pursues a similar strategy if the current trend continues will be one of the defining questions of the coming days.
Sánchez, who has run as the candidate of continuity with Peru’s progressive social movements and the imprisoned Castillo’s political base, has not yet made a public statement on the current count.
The Stakes
The result carries consequences that extend well beyond Peru’s borders. Analysts described this as one of the most closely watched elections in Peru in recent years, with every vote potentially decisive.
A Fujimori victory would add Peru to the growing bloc of right-wing governments across South America — joining Argentina, Chile, and Ecuador — and would arrive just two weeks before Colombia’s June 21 runoff.
It would also make Keiko Fujimori the first woman elected president in Peru, on her fourth attempt at the office, after losing in 2011, 2016, and 2021.
A Sánchez victory would represent one of the most improbable comebacks in recent Latin American electoral history — a leftist candidate winning the presidency in a country where the security crisis, crime rates, and backlash against the Castillo years had positioned the right as the overwhelming favorite heading into the runoff.
The count continues. Peru is waiting — again.
This story is developing. Sociedad Media will update as official results become available.
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Sociedad Media is a Miami-based independent digital news publication covering developments across Latin America, including the most consequential elections taking place throughout the region.
Our reporting follows strict impartiality standards.
