MIAMI — Republican Reps. María Elvira Salazar, Mario Díaz-Balart and Carlos Giménez all won re-election in Miami-Dade County, but the margins show a Latino electorate moving away from the party that carried the county two years ago. Democrats flipped neither seat. Two Republican incumbents came within a point of losing.
In District 27, the Associated Press called the race for Salazar, with 124,519 votes (50.2%) to Democrat Eliott Rodriguez’s 123,433 (49.8%). A recount confirmed her fourth term, with unofficial results showing a difference of less than 1,100 votes.
The district is about three-quarters Hispanic and includes parts of Miami, Key Biscayne, Cutler Bay, Coral Gables, Palmetto Bay, Pinecrest and South Miami.
NBC News data show the race moved about 14 points toward Democrats from the 2024 presidential result.
In District 26, AP’s count shows Díaz-Balart with 114,578 votes (49.9%) and Democrat Nicole Locklin with 112,874 (49.1%). In District 28, AP’s count shows Giménez with 125,030 votes (52.9%) and Democrat Phil Ehr with 107,901 (45.6%). AP has called both races for the Republicans.
A Redrawn Map
Díaz-Balart’s seat was historically reliably Republican, but Florida’s mid-decade redistricting added heavily Democratic parts of Broward County to it. NBC News’ analysis showed the district shifting nearly 18 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. NBC’s county data show Locklin took 60.4% in the Broward portion while Díaz-Balart took 60.3% in the Miami-Dade portion.
Governor Ron DeSantis signed the new map into law in May, reworking 21 of Florida’s 28 districts. Districts 27 and 28, held by Salazar and Giménez, did not change.
The Latino Vote
The races fit a wider pattern. Miami-Dade swung 18 points left from the 2024 presidential result, with Doral, a Venezuelan-American stronghold, posting the county’s largest individual swing at 14 points.
A Washington Post county-level analysis found Miami-Dade and Osceola counties each shifted 19 points toward Democrats in the Senate race compared with 2024, though not enough to flip the statewide result.
In 2024, Donald Trump won Miami-Dade with 55% of the vote, an 11-point margin.
Earlier warning signs came before the midterms. Democrat Eileen Higgins won Miami’s mayoral runoff last December, becoming the city’s first female mayor and first Democratic mayor in almost three decades.
Reuters reported that a sluggish economy, high living costs and the administration’s aggressive immigration agenda were complicating the GOP’s appeal to Cuban and Venezuelan-descended voters.
What it Means For Miami Latinos Going Forward
Immigration enforcement could remain a test for Miami’s Republican members. Although data suggests that the majority of Miami’s Latino still support deportations.
Salazar survived despite publicly breaking from the president on immigration, saying enforcement efforts had “gone too far.” Her narrow win suggests that stance, and the district’s economic concerns, will shape how all three members approach immigration votes in the next Congress.
Republican strength in the Cuban-American community has not collapsed. Polls also indicate Cuban American voters remain largely Republican.
The same coverage notes that South Florida’s Latino population includes large Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian and other communities whose political preferences do not always follow the same patterns.
The open question for 2028 is whether Democrats can keep the voters they won back this year, or whether this was a one-cycle reaction to the current administration.
For Miami’s Latino voters, the practical effect is more attention. Republicans who once treated these seats as safe now have reason to compete for them, and Democrats have evidence that Latino neighborhoods in Miami-Dade are winnable on affordability and immigration.
Both parties are likely to tailor their pitches to Cuban, Venezuelan, Colombian and Nicaraguan communities separately, rather than treating the vote as one bloc.
