UNITED KINGDOM — The leaders of Scotland, Wales, and Northern Ireland’s leading nationalist parties signed an unprecedented joint declaration in Cardiff on Monday, formally asserting each nation’s right to self-determination and demanding the British government prepare for the possibility that all three could eventually leave the United Kingdom.
The memorandum of understanding was signed by John Swinney, Scotland’s First Minister and leader of the Scottish National Party (SNP); Rhun ap Iorwerth, Wales’s First Minister and leader of Plaid Cymru; and Michelle O’Neill, Northern Ireland’s First Minister and co-leader of Sinn Féin, joined by Sinn Féin president Mary Lou McDonald.
The three leaders met at Cardiff’s St David’s Hotel in their capacity as party leaders rather than as an official meeting of their devolved governments.
The declaration states plainly:
“Our nations have the right to self-determination. No Westminster government has the right to block democracy or undermine the principle that our peoples will decide their own future.”
The declaration calls on Prime Minister Andy Burnham’s government to “prepare, plan and facilitate constitutional change” in all three nations, and covers cooperation across four specific areas: the economy, energy, relations with Europe, and international cooperation.
Swinney described the moment’s significance directly: “For the first time ever, people across these islands have first ministers in Scotland, in Wales and in the North of Ireland who are all committed to independence from the United Kingdom.”
The meeting reflects an underlying shift in the region’s politics: pro-independence parties now constitute the largest political force in both the Scottish and Welsh parliaments for the first time since devolution began in 1999, following elections this past May that produced pro-independence first ministers in all three nations simultaneously — the first time that has happened at once.
Different Paths, Same Principle
The three parties are not pursuing identical outcomes, however. The declaration envisions Scotland and Wales seeking European Union membership as new independent member states, while Northern Ireland’s path runs through unification with the Republic of Ireland, an EU member already.
Ap Iorwerth acknowledged the differences directly at the joint press conference: “The paths are different, different in nature and speed,” he said, “but there is a shared determination that it is up to the population to decide.”
Burnham’s Resistance
The declaration lands as a direct challenge to Prime Minister Burnham, who has moved to close off referendum options for both Scotland and Northern Ireland in recent weeks.
On August 27, Burnham said a referendum on Northern Ireland leaving the U.K. was “off the table.” He has separately ruled out a second Scottish independence vote, telling SNP leader Swinney in a letter that such a referendum remains “off limits” for now, citing a lack of “consensus” for one.
Constitutionally, Westminster retains the final say: a 2022 U.K. Supreme Court ruling established that authorizing an independence referendum for Scotland falls under the U.K. government’s authority, not Holyrood’s, following Scotland’s first independence referendum in 2014, when voters chose to remain in the UK.
An Unexpected American Voice
The Cardiff meeting came just days after President Trump was asked on his views of Irish reunification, stating he would back a united Ireland — remarks that drew a swift response from Northern Ireland’s unionist community and from Burnham himself, who reaffirmed that his government’s position on Irish unification remains unchanged despite Trump’s comments.
The U.K.’s constitutional structure complicates any path to independence considerably. The U.K. comprises four constituent countries — England, Wales, Scotland, and Northern Ireland — operating under three distinct legal systems: a combined system for England and Wales, Scotland’s separate system based on Scots law, and Northern Ireland’s own distinct legal framework. That patchwork, combined with Westminster’s confirmed authority over referendum approval, means Monday’s declaration functions primarily as a political statement of shared intent rather than a legally binding mechanism for actual separation.
With Burnham’s government showing no sign of reversing its position on either a Scottish or Northern Ireland referendum, and the three nationalist movements themselves pursuing different timelines and strategies toward the same underlying goal, Monday’s declaration is likely to function as a sustained source of political pressure on Westminster rather than an immediate trigger for constitutional change.
The political reality of growing electoral strength for pro-independence parties across all three nations could eventually force Burnham’s government to reconsider its current resistance.
