LIMA — Peru has deployed about 1,600 members of its armed forces on the ground in Piura, the northern region that bears the brunt of El Niño, as the government rolls out a multibillion-sol economic package to keep a growing economy from stalling.

The Defense Ministry says roughly 800 Army, Air Force and Navy personnel are assigned to the city of Piura. Another 800 are stationed in Sullana, Ayabaca and Máncora, areas considered high-risk.

Their orders are to respond immediately to emergencies tied to El Niño, including intense rain, flooding and huaicos, the debris flows that sweep down from the hills.

Early results are already visible. Sixty members of the Coronel José Joaquín Inclán artillery group finished evacuating standing water from the Ignacio Merino and El Chilcal neighborhoods, using two transfer pumps from the Housing, Construction and Sanitation Ministry.

Two trucks with high-capacity motor pumps will stay permanently at both sites, and soldiers will move additional pumps to affected areas in municipal vehicles under a coordination plan with local governments.

Defense Minister Rafael Belaunde said the water was cleared far faster than in past seasons. “Unlike other times, in a very short time the standing water has been evacuated,” he said.

The deployment is meant to prevent the weeks-long waterlogging that has marked earlier El Niño events in Piura.

The deployment follows a broader response. President Keiko Fujimori has pointed to work to widen the Piura River’s capacity to 4,000 cubic meters per second in the Los Ejidos area, temporary shelters for 30,000 people, five Navy ships to assist affected communities, field hospitals in Tumbes, Piura and Lambayeque, new bridges in the north, and more than 5,000 tons of food.

The official outlook explains the urgency. The national coastal El Niño commission, ENFEN, has kept the country on alert and put the chance of an “extraordinary” event off Peru and Ecuador at 62% between September 2026 and January 2027. It expects rainfall above normal on the northern coast, with episodes starting in November, and above-normal rain in the north and center of the country through the 2027 summer.

Economy Minister Elmer Cuba has called it an event “of a magnitude not seen, perhaps, in 50 years,” and warned lawmakers this week that the impact “may be worse than we think.”

Piura’s Economy Faces Sharpest Exposure

Piura, home to about 2.1 million people, has historically been hit harder than the country as a whole. In the 2017 coastal El Niño its regional economy shrank 2.4%, among the steepest drops in Peru, while the national economy grew 2.5%. In 2023, Piura grew 1% while Peru contracted 0.55%.

This year the region grew 4.3% in the first quarter but has been slowing. Economists expect the sharpest pain near year-end, when its main export crops, avocados and grapes, are harvested and were badly damaged in 2023.

Agriculture is labor-intensive in the region, so losses reach household income quickly.

A National Economy That is Still Growing

Nationally, the picture is stronger than the weather suggests. The economy grew 3.2% in August and 3.1% from January through August, its 29th straight month of expansion, with construction up 10.3%. Cuba credits domestic demand, private investment and higher prices for key export minerals. The ministry projects 3.4% growth for the full year, which Cuba told Congress is possible even with El Niño.

The IMF’s October outlook is slightly more cautious, projecting 3.0% for Peru in 2026, up from 2.8% in July.

The damage is concentrated in a few sectors. Fishing fell 17.3% in August and 31% in the first half of the year, and Cuba has said fishing, agriculture and textiles are already in recession.

Mining and hydrocarbons dipped 5.5% in August.

On Thursday, Fujimori and Cuba announced an additional S/ 18 billion (S/ 18,000 million) for 2027 to offset El Niño, higher fuel prices tied to the Middle East war and high international interest rates. The government will change its fiscal rules to allow a deficit of up to 2.4% of GDP, then bring it down to 1% by the end of the administration.

The package includes:

• S/ 2,500 million in temporary cash bonuses for vulnerable families and pensioners, including households exposed to flooding and landslides in the north and drought in the south
• S/ 2,000 million for maintenance of schools, health centers, police stations and roads, designed to create jobs quickly
• S/ 500 million in fuel subsidies
• S/ 13,000 million for infrastructure: S/ 6,000 million for education and S/ 7,000 million to finish stalled works, including 250 projects already more than 50% complete

Companies hit by El Niño will also get relief. Affected firms can postpone advance income-tax payments by filing projected financial statements with the tax authority, with fishing companies facing a poor season as the example.

The government will also release funds held in tax-withholding accounts at Banco de la Nación and provide credit guarantees through the Fondo Crecer.

Firms with falling sales and liquidity problems can apply for a “perfect suspension” of employment, with temporary bonuses for their workers.

Fujimori said El Niño and rising fuel costs “in no way will slow the growth of our country,” and that the state’s response “is stronger” than the coming “Mega Niño.”