The United States intelligence community released its 2026 Annual Threat Assessment on Wednesday—and for the first time in years, Venezuela was not listed as an unambiguous threat. Instead, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard and her intelligence chiefs delivered a cautiously optimistic verdict on the post-Maduro transition: Caracas is cooperating, oil talks are advancing, and political prisoners are being released.
The caveat, buried deeper in the same document, is that the rest of Latin America is heading toward a year of heightened volatility—and Washington’s rivals are not standing still.
Venezuela: A ‘Shift’ in Leadership
The assessment states directly: “Since Maduro’s arrest, we have seen a shift in Venezuela’s leadership toward cooperating with the U.S. to open its economy, develop the country’s oil and gas extraction capability, and release political prisoners.”
Gabbard, delivering her opening statement before the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, elaborated: “Since the arrest of Nicolás Maduro—who led a corrupt, authoritarian government—we have seen a willingness on the part of the Venezuelan Government to cooperate with the U.S. to open up its economy and develop the country’s abundant oil and natural gas extraction capability,” adding, “The government has released some political prisoners as part of an amnesty program.”
The language is deliberate and carefully hedged. The assessment does not describe Venezuela as an ally, a democracy, or a success story. It describes a government that has demonstrated “willingness”—a word chosen by the intelligence community to signal progress without overstating it. That distinction matters: the same intelligence community privately raised doubts as recently as January about whether Rodríguez was prepared to fully sever ties with Iran, China, and Russia—concerns that the firing of Defense Minister Padrino López on Wednesday and his replacement with a former intelligence chief have done little to fully resolve.
The Broader Hemisphere Warning
The Venezuela finding arrived alongside a sobering regional assessment that tempers any optimism.
“Latin America and the Caribbean almost certainly will see hotspots of volatility in the coming year, with the potential to undermine or distract some countries from improving living economies and living conditions and tackling illicit drug flows and cartels.”
The assessment specifically flagged the 2026 review of the U.S.–Mexico–Canada Agreement as a source of economic uncertainty across the region—particularly for countries that rely on Mexico as an export destination for intermediate goods.
“The USMCA review in 2026 will likely increase uncertainty in many Latin American countries, especially those that rely on Mexico as an export destination for intermediate goods for manufacture and onward export to the U.S.”
China, Russia, and Iran: Still Present
The threat assessment also delivered a direct warning about the continuing ambitions of Washington’s strategic rivals in the Western Hemisphere.
“China, Russia, and Iran are seeking to sustain economic, political, and military engagement with Latin America. China’s demand for raw materials is likely to drive continued economic outreach, while Russia likely wants to expand its current security and diplomatic ties with Cuba and Nicaragua.”
The finding carries direct implications for Venezuela, where China and Russia both maintained a diplomatic presence through Rodríguez’s swearing-in ceremony in January, and where the question of whether Caracas will fully expel their advisers, security personnel, and economic relationships remains unresolved despite Washington’s public demands.
Gabbard’s Testimony—and What It Signals
For Miami’s Venezuelan diaspora—which has watched the post-Maduro transition with a mixture of hope and skepticism—Wednesday’s intelligence assessment offers the most authoritative U.S. government endorsement yet of the Rodríguez government’s cooperative posture.
It also contains an implicit warning: cooperation is being monitored, measured, and reported to Congress in real time. The intelligence community’s use of the word “willingness” rather than “commitment” is not accidental. It is a signal to Caracas that the assessment can change—and that Wednesday’s firing of Padrino López, and everything that follows it, will be watched.
