MIAMI — Nearshoring has become the defining investment story of North America’s industrial decade, and in 2026 its geography is visibly splitting: Mexico remains the single largest beneficiary by scale, while U.S. tariff uncertainty is simultaneously pushing manufacturers and services companies to diversify their footprint across Costa Rica, Panama, Guatemala, Colombia, and the Dominican Republic.
Mexico Still Leads, By a Wide Margin
Mexico absorbed roughly $41 billion in foreign direct investment in the first three quarters of 2025 alone, a 15% year-on-year increase, and has replaced China as the United States’ top trading partner by value since 2023 — making it both the top supplier and top export market for the U.S.
Manufacturing investment tied to autos, electronics, and industrial equipment has continued flowing into the country, supporting employment and exports even as broader macroeconomic gains remain constrained.
But Mexico’s “Miracle” Has Real Cracks
Mexico’s nearshoring boom is genuine but uneven. Three structural bottlenecks are limiting how much further it can scale in 2026: energy supply constraints, water scarcity across the country’s northern industrial belt, and customs inefficiency. A fourth, more immediate risk has emerged from Mexico’s own tax authority: retroactive audits by the SAT (Servicio de Administración Tributaria) reaching up to ten years back threaten to suspend companies’ import licenses unless disputed amounts are paid upfront, creating genuine operational risk for manufacturers already established in the country.
Foreign manufacturers continue pouring record sums into plants and industrial parks even as domestic Mexican investors have grown more cautious amid these same pressures.
Why the Rest of the Region Is Gaining Ground
U.S. tariff uncertainty is the direct driver pushing companies to diversify beyond Mexico rather than concentrate their entire nearshoring strategy there. Central America, the Dominican Republic, Colombia, and Costa Rica are absorbing a growing share of both services and manufacturing (maquila) investment as a result.
Costa Rica: Medical Devices and Business Services
Costa Rica has consolidated its position as a leading hub for medical device manufacturing and advanced production, leveraging an educated workforce and political stability that have long attracted shared services centers and technology firms.
The country has increasingly positioned itself as a nearshore hub for business process outsourcing and software development specifically, with U.S. companies seeking time-zone-aligned alternatives to Asian outsourcing destinations. Its Puerto Limón/Moín port processed 1.366 million TEUs, ranking tenth in Latin America with 3.4% growth.